{ "schema_version": 3, "updates": [ { "date": "2026-09-20", "summary": "Economic and energy stress remained severe while the coercive apparatus showed no evidence of systemic fracture.", "metrics": { "regional_escalation_90d": 30, "regime_end_12m": 10, "fx_crisis_12m": 84, "hormuz": "Severely restricted", "energy_stress": "High", "houthi_support_12m": 76, "china_oil_credit_haircut": 38 }, "status": { "regional": "amber", "regime": "amber", "fx": "red", "hormuz": "red", "energy": "red", "houthi": "amber", "china": "amber" }, "regional": [ { "name": "Negotiated de-escalation / partial reopening", "p": 28 }, { "name": "Prolonged militarized standoff", "p": 42 }, { "name": "Wider regional escalation", "p": 30 } ], "political": [ { "name": "Hardline/security continuity", "p": 58 }, { "name": "Continuity + external stabilization", "p": 19 }, { "name": "Major internal reconfiguration", "p": 13 }, { "name": "Regime-ending transition", "p": 10 } ], "warning": {}, "news": [] }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "summary": "Diplomacy suffered a setback while fiscal and energy stress worsened; managed oil transit through Hormuz improved for Gulf producers without restoring Iran's own export position.", "metrics": { "regional_escalation_90d": 36, "regime_end_12m": 12, "fx_crisis_12m": 87, "hormuz": "Severely restricted", "energy_stress": "High / worsening", "houthi_support_12m": 76, "china_oil_credit_haircut": 40, "currency_crisis_12m": 68, "external_payments_crisis_12m": 72, "fx_crisis_12m_legacy_composite": true }, "status": { "regional": "red", "regime": "amber", "fx": "red", "hormuz": "red", "energy": "red", "houthi": "amber", "china": "amber" }, "regional": [ { "name": "Negotiated de-escalation / partial reopening", "p": 20 }, { "name": "Prolonged militarized standoff", "p": 44 }, { "name": "Wider regional escalation", "p": 36 } ], "political": [ { "name": "Hardline/security continuity", "p": 57 }, { "name": "Continuity + external stabilization", "p": 17 }, { "name": "Major internal reconfiguration", "p": 14 }, { "name": "Regime-ending transition", "p": 12 } ], "warning": { "Monetary / FX": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "Medium-high", "role": "leading", "text": "Warning: depreciation, liquidity growth and a large managed/free-market spread show substantial movement toward an acute FX threshold." }, "Fiscal": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "leading", "text": "Warning: weak sovereign financing demand, high yields and impaired oil revenue increase financing stress; ordinary financing has not clearly failed." }, "Banking / payments": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "leading", "text": "Warning: alternative payment rails and import settlement face material sanctions friction, but nationwide payment-system failure is not established." }, "Food / medicine": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "coincident", "text": "Warning: medicine and imported-input shortages are material; evidence does not establish generalized essential-food failure." }, "Energy / industrial": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "High", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Warning: rationing and conservation are affecting work patterns and industrial/logistics activity; evidence does not yet show self-reinforcing allocation failure or failure of priority users." }, "Social / protest": { "level": "watch", "direction": "up", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "coincident", "text": "Watch: economic protests have broadened but remain fragmented rather than sustained nationwide coordinated unrest." }, "Coercive apparatus": { "level": "unknown", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Low", "role": "leading", "text": "Insufficient data on pay and benefits. Available reporting shows no verified refusal, desertion or defection, but absence of evidence is not coded green." }, "Elite cohesion": { "level": "watch", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "leading", "text": "Watch: policy disagreement exists, but no open institutional fracture affecting command or governance is visible." }, "External support": { "level": "watch", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Medium-high", "role": "leading", "text": "Watch: China and Russia cushion isolation but do not replace lost oil FX and have incentives to limit destabilizing escalation." } }, "news": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "type": "Diplomacy", "title": "Tehran's initial Hormuz proposal was rejected", "impact": "Reduced the negotiated-de-escalation scenario and raised prolonged-standoff and escalation cases.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-awaits-us-move-after-wsj-report-says-trump-rejects-peace-plan-2026-09-26/", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-09-27", "event_date": "2026-09-26" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "type": "Maritime", "title": "Hormuz crude shuttles and managed flows increased despite severely depressed ordinary traffic", "impact": "Reuters/Kpler reporting documented continuing Saudi and Iraqi crude movement and ship-to-ship workarounds despite very low visible commercial traffic, lowering physical-delivery risk slightly without restoring Iranian oil revenue.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessels-trickle-through-strait-hormuz-mideast-tension-persists-2026-09-21/", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-09-27", "event_date": "2026-09-21" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "type": "Energy", "title": "Emergency demand-management measures took effect", "impact": "Remote work, public-transport incentives and fuel-conservation measures strengthened evidence of a binding domestic energy imbalance.", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/21/how-an-economic-squeeze-is-changing-everyday-life-and-work-for-iranians", "revision_type": "New event", "source_note": "Al Jazeera reported the government set 8am–1pm office attendance from September 23 with remaining hours remote, weekly public-transport days, and temporarily free metro/BRT as fuel-saving measures.", "revision_date": "2026-09-27", "event_date": "2026-09-21" } ], "what_changed": "Diplomacy deteriorated while fiscal and energy evidence worsened; managed Hormuz crude movement improved without restoring Iran's own oil-export position.", "stabilizer": "No verified coercive-system fracture or failure of priority military/security allocations.", "next_threshold": "Whether economic and energy stress begins impairing priority state allocations or coercive-system compensation.", "conditions": { "hormuz": "Observation: commercial traffic remains severely restricted despite managed crude movements.", "energy": "Inference, high confidence: binding product and power constraints are producing active demand management.", "elite": "Strained but institutionally intact", "coercion": "No verified systemic compensation or discipline failure" }, "forecasts": [ { "label": "Sustained major regional escalation", "p": 36, "horizon": "within 90 days", "confidence": "Medium", "range": [ 25, 48 ], "event_definition": "Sustained major interstate strikes lasting at least 72 hours, or a material expansion of major combat to an additional sovereign state or operational theater. Isolated interceptions, one-off strikes, proxy attacks, and rhetoric alone are excluded unless they initiate the qualifying sustained episode.", "raise": "Repeated major US–Iran strikes, broader Saudi–Houthi war, or failure of active mediation.", "lower": "Verified ceasefire implementation, sustained Hormuz normalization, or direct negotiations producing enforceable constraints.", "scored": true, "created_date": "2026-09-27", "provenance": "Prospective forecast issued with 2026-09-27 assessment", "original_issue_definition": "30–90 day regional scenario: wider regional escalation", "current_resolution_rule_status": "Later operationalization adopted 2026-10-03; use only if consistent with the original forecast meaning. Any material ambiguity at resolution must be disclosed and sensitivity-scored rather than silently resolved.", "forecast_id": "regional_escalation_90d_20260927", "forecast_open": "2026-09-27T09:00:00-04:00", "resolution_deadline": "2026-12-26T09:00:00-05:00" }, { "label": "Regime-ending transition", "p": 12, "horizon": "within 12 months", "confidence": "Medium", "range": [ 7, 20 ], "event_definition": "Replacement of the Islamic Republic's governing constitutional-institutional order, or loss of its effective national governing authority. Leadership succession, cabinet changes, and factional turnover within the same governing order are excluded.", "raise": "Verified elite fracture, security-force compensation failure, refusal to enforce orders, defections, or sustained coordinated nationwide unrest.", "lower": "Oil/FX stabilization, declining protest coordination, durable elite cohesion, and continued reliable coercive-system compensation.", "scored": true, "created_date": "2026-09-27", "provenance": "Prospective forecast issued with 2026-09-27 assessment", "original_issue_definition": "12-month political outcome: regime-ending transition", "current_resolution_rule_status": "Later operationalization adopted 2026-10-03; use only if consistent with the original forecast meaning. Any material ambiguity at resolution must be disclosed and sensitivity-scored rather than silently resolved.", "forecast_id": "regime_end_12m_20260927", "forecast_open": "2026-09-27T09:00:00-04:00", "resolution_deadline": "2027-09-27T09:00:00-04:00" }, { "label": "Currency crisis", "p": 68, "horizon": "within 12 months", "confidence": "Medium", "range": [ 55, 80 ], "event_definition": "Depreciation of the parallel-market rial by at least 25% against the U.S. dollar over any rolling 30-calendar-day window, using the designated consistent parallel-rate series and excluding a single-day quote anomaly that reverses within 48 hours.", "raise": "Renewed rapid parallel-rate depreciation, failed intervention, accelerating monetary financing or shortening price/wage intervals.", "lower": "Sustained rial stabilization, narrowing official–parallel spread and slower liquidity growth.", "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" }, { "label": "External-payments crisis", "p": 72, "horizon": "within 12 months", "confidence": "Medium", "range": [ 58, 84 ], "event_definition": "Corroborated settlement disruption lasting at least 14 days in at least two essential-import categories—food or grain, medicine or medical inputs, or critical energy or industrial inputs—combined with broad emergency foreign-exchange, import, or payment restrictions or a material shift by suppliers to prepayment or cash because established settlement channels are failing. Evidence must come from at least two independent source streams.", "raise": "Further oil/payment-channel loss, import-payment breakdown, supplier prepayment demands or broad LC/settlement failure.", "lower": "Restored oil receipts/payment access, improved import settlement and durable alternative payment channels.", "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" } ], "chains": [ { "name": "FX / fiscal", "stage": 2, "level": "warning", "note": "Depreciation is confirmed; intervention is under strain but not established as failed. Generalized high-frequency repricing and runaway monetization are not established.", "steps": [ "Depreciation", "Intervention strain", "Currency substitution", "Rapid repricing/indexation", "Fiscal monetization" ], "confirmed": 1, "current": 1, "pathway_note": "Diagnostic pathway, not a required causal sequence: stages may be skipped, reversed or reached through another mechanism." }, { "name": "Energy / real economy", "stage": 3, "level": "critical", "note": "Rationing/conservation and industrial/freight disruption are confirmed; essential-goods stress is present but not yet a generalized shortage threshold. Failure of priority allocations remains absent.", "steps": [ "Rationing", "Industrial/freight disruption", "Essential-goods shortages", "State arrears", "Priority-allocation failure" ], "confirmed": 2, "current": 2, "pathway_note": "Diagnostic pathway, not a required causal sequence: stages may be skipped, reversed or reached through another mechanism." }, { "name": "Regime / coercion", "stage": 1, "level": "watch", "note": "Economic protest is confirmed; movement toward coordinated national protest is being watched, while elite fracture and coercive refusal are not established.", "steps": [ "Economic protest", "Coordinated national protest", "Elite fracture", "Coercive refusal", "Defections" ], "confirmed": 1, "current": 1, "pathway_note": "Diagnostic pathway, not a required causal sequence: stages may be skipped, reversed or reached through another mechanism." } ], "haircut": { "range": [ 27, 57 ], "note": "Risk adjustment may appear through price, tenor, collateral or payment timing rather than an explicit discount.", "method": { "label": "Model estimate", "rule": "Central haircut = sum of six bounded component haircuts: physical delivery/blockade 0–25 pp; sanctions/payment channels 0–15; sovereign/counterparty 0–10; oil-price/basis 0–8; illiquidity/enforcement 0–8; political/secondary-sanctions tail 0–8. Each component is assigned from documented weekly evidence using Low/Mid/High anchors at 25/50/75% of its cap; the central estimate is the sum rounded to the nearest percentage point. The judgmental range is formed by moving each uncertain component one anchor step down/up, bounded at zero/cap. This is not an observed contract price.", "components": [ [ "Physical delivery/blockade", 15, 25 ], [ "Sanctions/payment channels", 8, 15 ], [ "Sovereign/counterparty", 6, 10 ], [ "Oil-price/basis", 3, 8 ], [ "Illiquidity/enforcement", 4, 8 ], [ "Political/secondary-sanctions tail", 4, 8 ] ] } }, "houthi": { "m6": 88, "m24": 55, "definition": "Strategically meaningful Houthi support is decomposed into Iranian matériel flow, Iranian technical/financial assistance, and Houthi independent/local capability. The headline support-continuity probability refers only to continued Iranian technical/financial or material support sufficient to measurably sustain advanced missile/UAV or maritime capability; local capability alone does not resolve it Yes.", "material_support_12m": 62, "technical_financial_support_12m": 82, "independent_capability_12m": 86 }, "absence_indicators": [ { "label": "Security-force defections", "status": "unknown", "coverage": "Medium", "text": "No verified consequential defections or unit-level refusal, but reporting coverage is insufficient for affirmative Normal status." }, { "label": "Nationwide bazaar shutdown", "status": "normal", "coverage": "Medium", "text": "No verified nationwide coordinated bazaar closure." }, { "label": "Priority military/security fuel failure", "status": "unknown", "coverage": "Low", "text": "No failure is reported, but public observation is too weak to treat absence as affirmative reassurance." }, { "label": "Economy-wide high-frequency wage indexation", "status": "unknown", "coverage": "Medium", "text": "No generalized high-frequency automatic wage repricing is verified, but observation coverage is insufficient for affirmative Normal status." }, { "label": "Systemically important Chinese-bank cutoff", "status": "normal", "coverage": "Medium-high", "text": "No verified cutoff by a major Chinese bank; Chinese support remains conditional but material." } ], "next_scheduled_update": "2026-10-04T09:00:00-04:00", "binary_political": [ { "label": "Islamic Republic governing order survives 12 months", "p": 88, "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" }, { "label": "Material elite/institutional restructuring within 12 months", "p": 26, "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" }, { "label": "Negotiated external stabilization within 12 months", "p": 34, "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" } ], "regional_resolution_note": "Scenario buckets are descriptive legacy partitions. Scored forecasting uses the binary sustained-major-escalation definition above; future scenario partitions must include explicit mutually exclusive resolution rules.", "political_resolution_note": "Political outcome buckets are retained as a legacy descriptive partition. Scored forecasting uses separate binary events because institutional restructuring and external stabilization can co-occur.", "limitations": "Iranian economic, military and political data are incomplete, delayed, sometimes contradictory and strategically manipulated. Open-source visibility is asymmetric across institutions and regions. Probabilities therefore reflect the stated public information set, not complete knowledge.", "corrections": [], "evidence": [ { "id": "E-20260927-01", "date": "2026-09-26", "category": "Diplomacy", "observation": "US rejection of Tehran's initial Hormuz proposal was reported.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-awaits-us-move-after-wsj-report-says-trump-rejects-peace-plan-2026-09-26/", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "Sustained major regional escalation" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "ambiguous" }, { "id": "E-20260927-02", "date": "2026-09-21", "category": "Maritime", "observation": "Reuters/Kpler reported continued managed Saudi/Iraqi crude movement despite severely depressed ordinary Hormuz traffic.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessels-trickle-through-strait-hormuz-mideast-tension-persists-2026-09-21/", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "Sustained major regional escalation", "External-payments crisis", "Iran–China oil-credit haircut" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "ambiguous" }, { "id": "E-20260927-03", "date": "2026-09-21", "category": "Energy", "observation": "Government office-hour, remote-work and public-transport measures were reported as fuel-saving measures beginning September 23.", "source": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/21/how-an-economic-squeeze-is-changing-everyday-life-and-work-for-iranians", "reliability": "Medium-high", "affects": [ "Energy / industrial warning" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "ambiguous" } ], "assessment_evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27T09:00:00-04:00", "methodology_revision_date": "2026-10-03", "protocol_version_for_assessment": "pre-v1 / legacy", "methodology_notes": [ "Protocol v1.0 was frozen on 2026-10-03 for prospective forecasts beginning 2026-10-04. It is not retroactively applied to the 2026-09-27 forecast." ], "revision_attribution_status": "Not reconstructed retrospectively; signed contribution accounting begins prospectively under Protocol v1 on 2026-10-04." }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "summary": "Regional military risk rose sharply with the Yemen campaign and Houthi attacks, while the rial and medicine access deteriorated; mediation and improved managed Hormuz transit remain stabilizers.", "metrics": { "regional_escalation_90d": 56, "regime_end_12m": 14, "fx_crisis_12m": 82, "hormuz": "Severely restricted; managed transit improving", "energy_stress": "High", "houthi_support_12m": 78, "china_oil_credit_haircut": 42, "currency_crisis_12m": 78, "external_payments_crisis_12m": 80, "fx_crisis_12m_legacy_composite": true }, "status": { "regional": "red", "regime": "amber", "fx": "red", "hormuz": "red", "energy": "red", "houthi": "red", "china": "amber" }, "regional": [ { "name": "Negotiated de-escalation / partial reopening", "p": 14 }, { "name": "Prolonged militarized standoff", "p": 30 }, { "name": "Wider regional escalation", "p": 56 } ], "political": [ { "name": "Hardline/security continuity", "p": 55 }, { "name": "Continuity + external stabilization", "p": 16 }, { "name": "Major internal reconfiguration", "p": 15 }, { "name": "Regime-ending transition", "p": 14 } ], "warning": { "Monetary / FX": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "High", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "New rial low and large intervention; acute depreciation pressure rising." }, "Fiscal": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Oil-revenue and inflation pressure remain severe; routine financing failure not established." }, "Banking / payments": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "Medium-high", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Sanctions and logistics friction impair settlement; broad payment failure not established." }, "Food / medicine": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "up", "coverage": "High", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Medicine prices and pharmacy shortages worsened." }, "Energy / industrial": { "level": "warning-level", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "High", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Material constraints persist; priority-allocation failure not established." }, "Social / protest": { "level": "watch", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Severe household stress without verified sustained nationwide coordination." }, "Coercive apparatus": { "level": "unknown", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Low", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Insufficient evidence; no verified systemic refusal or defection." }, "Elite cohesion": { "level": "watch", "direction": "flat", "coverage": "Medium", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "Strain without verified institutional fracture." }, "External support": { "level": "watch", "direction": "down", "coverage": "Medium-high", "role": "leading/coincident", "text": "China-linked channels cushion isolation but blockade and sanctions constrain oil monetization." } }, "news": [ { "date": "2026-10-04", "type": "Diplomacy / Hormuz", "title": "Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met", "impact": "Iran kept Hormuz reopening conditional while mediated exchanges continued.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-strait-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-conditions-are-met-2026-10-04/", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-10-04" }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "type": "Yemen / regional military", "title": "Yemeni government launches offensive to seize all areas from Iran-backed Houthis", "impact": "Yemen's Saudi-backed government launched a major anti-Houthi campaign with Saudi aerial and US intelligence support reported.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/head-yemens-presidential-council-announces-military-operations-retake-territory-2026-10-04/", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-10-04" }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "type": "Monetary / FX", "title": "Iranian rial at new low, as cenbank sells dollars to support currency", "impact": "The rial fell to about 2.688-2.695 million per dollar and state banks began selling up to $2 billion.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-rial-new-low-cenbank-sells-dollars-support-currency-2026-10-03/", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-10-03" }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "type": "Maritime", "title": "September LNG shipments through Hormuz hit highest since start of US-Iran war", "impact": "September LNG Hormuz transits reached their highest monthly level since the war began, still well below pre-war normal.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/september-lng-shipments-through-hormuz-hit-highest-since-start-us-iran-war-2026-10-02/", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-09-30" }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "type": "Food / medicine", "title": "Iranians face soaring prices for medicine as the US blockade and sanctions hit hard", "impact": "AP reported sharply higher medicine prices and pharmacy shortages amid import, blockade and payment friction.", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-blockade-medicine-pharmaceutical-prices-a66f60e950ec47b518a9a8856683ee75", "revision_type": "New event", "revision_date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-09-30" } ], "what_changed": "The Yemen campaign and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure raised regional risk; the rial hit another low and medicine/payment stress worsened. Active mediation and improved managed Hormuz transit offset part of the deterioration.", "stabilizer": "Mediated US-Iran exchanges continue and managed Hormuz LNG transit improved.", "next_threshold": "Whether Yemen fighting meets the frozen escalation definition, and whether rial intervention fails into the 25%/30-day currency threshold.", "conditions": { "hormuz": "Severely restricted, with improving managed transit.", "energy": "Domestic constraints remain binding.", "elite": "Strained but institutionally intact.", "coercion": "No verified systemic refusal or defection; low coverage." }, "forecasts": [ { "label": "Sustained major regional escalation", "p": 56, "horizon": "within 90 days", "confidence": "Medium-high", "range": [ 42, 70 ], "event_definition": "Sustained major interstate strikes lasting at least 72 hours, or a material expansion of major combat to an additional sovereign state or operational theater. Isolated interceptions, one-off strikes, proxy attacks, and rhetoric alone are excluded unless they initiate the qualifying sustained episode.", "raise": "Further qualifying deterioration in the event's principal drivers.", "lower": "Verified stabilization or reversal in the event's principal drivers.", "scored": true, "created_date": "2026-10-04", "provenance": "Prospective Protocol v1.0", "forecast_id": "regional_escalation_90d_20261004", "event_id": "regional_escalation_90d", "forecast_open": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "resolution_deadline": "2027-01-02T14:00:00-05:00" }, { "label": "Regime-ending transition", "p": 14, "horizon": "within 12 months", "confidence": "Medium", "range": [ 8, 24 ], "event_definition": "Replacement of the Islamic Republic's governing constitutional-institutional order, or loss of its effective national governing authority. Leadership succession, cabinet changes, and factional turnover within the same governing order are excluded.", "raise": "Further qualifying deterioration in the event's principal drivers.", "lower": "Verified stabilization or reversal in the event's principal drivers.", "scored": true, "created_date": "2026-10-04", "provenance": "Prospective Protocol v1.0", "forecast_id": "regime_end_12m_20261004", "event_id": "regime_end_12m", "forecast_open": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "resolution_deadline": "2027-10-04T14:00:00-04:00" }, { "label": "Currency crisis", "p": 78, "horizon": "within 12 months", "confidence": "Medium-high", "range": [ 65, 88 ], "event_definition": "Depreciation of the parallel-market rial by at least 25% against the U.S. dollar over any rolling 30-calendar-day window, using the designated consistent parallel-rate series and excluding a single-day quote anomaly that reverses within 48 hours.", "raise": "Further qualifying deterioration in the event's principal drivers.", "lower": "Verified stabilization or reversal in the event's principal drivers.", "scored": true, "created_date": "2026-10-04", "provenance": "Prospective Protocol v1.0", "forecast_id": "currency_crisis_12m_20261004", "event_id": "currency_crisis_12m", "forecast_open": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "resolution_deadline": "2027-10-04T14:00:00-04:00" }, { "label": "External-payments crisis", "p": 80, "horizon": "within 12 months", "confidence": "Medium-high", "range": [ 67, 90 ], "event_definition": "Corroborated settlement disruption lasting at least 14 days in at least two essential-import categories—food or grain, medicine or medical inputs, or critical energy or industrial inputs—combined with broad emergency foreign-exchange, import, or payment restrictions or a material shift by suppliers to prepayment or cash because established settlement channels are failing. Evidence must come from at least two independent source streams.", "raise": "Further qualifying deterioration in the event's principal drivers.", "lower": "Verified stabilization or reversal in the event's principal drivers.", "scored": true, "created_date": "2026-10-04", "provenance": "Prospective Protocol v1.0", "forecast_id": "external_payments_crisis_12m_20261004", "event_id": "external_payments_crisis_12m", "forecast_open": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "resolution_deadline": "2027-10-04T14:00:00-04:00" } ], "chains": [ { "name": "FX / fiscal", "stage": 2, "level": "warning", "note": "Depreciation is confirmed; intervention is under strain but not established as failed. Generalized high-frequency repricing and runaway monetization are not established.", "steps": [ "Depreciation", "Intervention strain", "Currency substitution", "Rapid repricing/indexation", "Fiscal monetization" ], "confirmed": 1, "current": 1, "pathway_note": "Diagnostic pathway, not a required causal sequence: stages may be skipped, reversed or reached through another mechanism." }, { "name": "Energy / real economy", "stage": 3, "level": "critical", "note": "Rationing/conservation and industrial/freight disruption are confirmed; essential-goods stress is present but not yet a generalized shortage threshold. Failure of priority allocations remains absent.", "steps": [ "Rationing", "Industrial/freight disruption", "Essential-goods shortages", "State arrears", "Priority-allocation failure" ], "confirmed": 2, "current": 2, "pathway_note": "Diagnostic pathway, not a required causal sequence: stages may be skipped, reversed or reached through another mechanism." }, { "name": "Regime / coercion", "stage": 1, "level": "watch", "note": "Economic protest is confirmed; movement toward coordinated national protest is being watched, while elite fracture and coercive refusal are not established.", "steps": [ "Economic protest", "Coordinated national protest", "Elite fracture", "Coercive refusal", "Defections" ], "confirmed": 1, "current": 1, "pathway_note": "Diagnostic pathway, not a required causal sequence: stages may be skipped, reversed or reached through another mechanism." } ], "haircut": { "range": [ 30, 58 ], "note": "Equivalent risk adjustment; not an observed contract discount.", "method": { "label": "Protocol v1 model estimate", "rule": "Component contributions are not simply interpreted as independent risks. Protocol v1 applies a 20% overlap deduction to the combined delivery + sanctions/payment + political-tail subtotal above 20 percentage points, rounded to the nearest point, to reduce double counting of a common geopolitical shock.", "components": [ [ "Physical delivery/blockade", 15, 25 ], [ "Sanctions/payment channels", 10, 15 ], [ "Sovereign/counterparty", 6, 10 ], [ "Oil-price/basis", 4, 8 ], [ "Illiquidity/enforcement", 4, 8 ], [ "Political/secondary-sanctions tail", 5, 8 ] ] }, "calculation": { "components": [ [ "Physical delivery/blockade", 15, 25 ], [ "Sanctions/payment channels", 10, 15 ], [ "Sovereign/counterparty", 6, 10 ], [ "Oil-price/basis", 4, 8 ], [ "Illiquidity/enforcement", 4, 8 ], [ "Political/secondary-sanctions tail", 5, 8 ] ], "raw_sum": 44, "overlap_deduction_20pct": 2, "adjusted_headline": 42, "sensitivity": { "overlap_0pct": 44, "overlap_20pct": 42, "overlap_40pct": 40 } } }, "houthi": { "m6": 90, "m24": 58, "definition": "Yes only if Iranian matériel or Iranian technical/financial support remains sufficient to measurably sustain advanced Houthi missile/UAV or maritime capability. Houthi independent/local capability alone cannot resolve Iranian-support continuity Yes.", "material_support_12m": 64, "technical_financial_support_12m": 84, "independent_capability_12m": 88, "diagnostic_note": "Unscored frozen-v1 diagnostic decomposition." }, "absence_indicators": [ { "label": "Security-force defections", "status": "unknown", "coverage": "Medium", "text": "No verified consequential defections or unit-level refusal, but reporting coverage is insufficient for affirmative Normal status." }, { "label": "Nationwide bazaar shutdown", "status": "normal", "coverage": "Medium", "text": "No verified nationwide coordinated bazaar closure." }, { "label": "Priority military/security fuel failure", "status": "unknown", "coverage": "Low", "text": "No failure is reported, but public observation is too weak to treat absence as affirmative reassurance." }, { "label": "Economy-wide high-frequency wage indexation", "status": "unknown", "coverage": "Medium", "text": "No generalized high-frequency automatic wage repricing is verified, but observation coverage is insufficient for affirmative Normal status." }, { "label": "Systemically important Chinese-bank cutoff", "status": "normal", "coverage": "Medium-high", "text": "No verified cutoff by a major Chinese bank; Chinese support remains conditional but material." } ], "next_scheduled_update": "2026-10-11T09:00:00-04:00", "binary_political": [ { "label": "Islamic Republic governing order survives 12 months", "p": 88, "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" }, { "label": "Material elite/institutional restructuring within 12 months", "p": 26, "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" }, { "label": "Negotiated external stabilization within 12 months", "p": 34, "provenance": "Retrospective methodological decomposition", "scored": false, "created_date": "2026-10-03" } ], "regional_resolution_note": "Scenario buckets are descriptive legacy partitions. Scored forecasting uses the binary sustained-major-escalation definition above; future scenario partitions must include explicit mutually exclusive resolution rules.", "political_resolution_note": "Political outcome buckets are retained as a legacy descriptive partition. Scored forecasting uses separate binary events because institutional restructuring and external stabilization can co-occur.", "limitations": "Iranian economic, military and political data are incomplete, delayed, sometimes contradictory and strategically manipulated. Open-source visibility is asymmetric across institutions and regions. Probabilities therefore reflect the stated public information set, not complete knowledge.", "corrections": [], "evidence": [ { "id": "E-20261004-01", "date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-10-04", "category": "Diplomacy / Hormuz", "observation": "Iran kept Hormuz reopening conditional while mediated exchanges continued.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-strait-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-conditions-are-met-2026-10-04/", "source_title": "Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met", "publisher": "Reuters", "source_publication_time": "2026-10-04T07:59:00+00:00", "source_publication_status": "known", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "Sustained major regional escalation", "External-payments crisis" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "ambiguous" }, { "id": "E-20261004-02", "date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-10-04", "category": "Yemen / regional military", "observation": "Yemen's Saudi-backed government launched a major anti-Houthi campaign with Saudi aerial and US intelligence support reported.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/head-yemens-presidential-council-announces-military-operations-retake-territory-2026-10-04/", "source_title": "Yemeni government launches offensive to seize all areas from Iran-backed Houthis", "publisher": "Reuters", "source_publication_time": "2026-10-04T12:14:00+00:00", "source_publication_status": "known", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "Sustained major regional escalation", "Houthi support diagnostic" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "major", "direction": "raises" }, { "id": "E-20261004-03", "date": "2026-10-03", "event_date": "2026-10-03", "category": "Monetary / FX", "observation": "The rial fell to about 2.688-2.695 million per dollar and state banks began selling up to $2 billion.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-rial-new-low-cenbank-sells-dollars-support-currency-2026-10-03/", "source_title": "Iranian rial at new low, as cenbank sells dollars to support currency", "publisher": "Reuters", "source_publication_time": null, "source_publication_status": "unknown precise time", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "Currency crisis", "Regime-ending transition" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "major", "direction": "raises" }, { "id": "E-20261004-04", "date": "2026-09-30", "event_date": "2026-09-30", "category": "Maritime", "observation": "September LNG Hormuz transits reached their highest monthly level since the war began, still well below pre-war normal.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/september-lng-shipments-through-hormuz-hit-highest-since-start-us-iran-war-2026-10-02/", "source_title": "September LNG shipments through Hormuz hit highest since start of US-Iran war", "publisher": "Reuters", "source_publication_time": "2026-10-02T07:47:00+00:00", "source_publication_status": "known", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "Sustained major regional escalation", "External-payments crisis", "Iran–China oil-credit haircut" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "lowers" }, { "id": "E-20261004-05", "date": "2026-09-30", "event_date": "2026-09-30", "category": "Food / medicine", "observation": "AP reported sharply higher medicine prices and pharmacy shortages amid import, blockade and payment friction.", "source": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-blockade-medicine-pharmaceutical-prices-a66f60e950ec47b518a9a8856683ee75", "source_title": "Iranians face soaring prices for medicine as the US blockade and sanctions hit hard", "publisher": "Associated Press", "source_publication_time": null, "source_publication_status": "unknown precise time", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "External-payments crisis", "Food / medicine warning" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "raises" }, { "id": "E-20261004-06", "date": "2026-09-10", "event_date": "2026-09-10", "category": "China / external support", "observation": "Reuters documented a China-based oil-credit mechanism but reported blockade constraints on Iranian crude transit to China.", "source": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-billion-dollar-sanctions-dodge-kept-chinese-goods-flowing-iran-2026-09-10/", "source_title": "How a billion-dollar sanctions dodge kept Chinese goods flowing to Iran", "publisher": "Reuters", "source_publication_time": "2026-09-10T06:05:01+00:00", "source_publication_status": "known", "reliability": "High", "affects": [ "External-payments crisis", "Iran–China oil-credit haircut" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "moderate", "direction": "ambiguous" }, { "id": "E-20261004-07", "date": "2026-10-04", "event_date": "2026-10-04", "category": "Inflation diagnostic", "observation": "Latest recoverable Hanke estimate was 79.1% annual inflation; precise original publication time was unavailable.", "source": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/293977348485185", "source_title": "Today, I measure Iran's annual inflation at a crushing 79.1%", "publisher": "Steve Hanke repost on Binance Square", "source_publication_time": null, "source_publication_status": "unknown precise time", "reliability": "Medium", "affects": [ "Currency crisis", "Hanke diagnostic" ], "evidence_status": "new", "impact_magnitude": "minor", "direction": "ambiguous" } ], "assessment_evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "methodology_revision_date": "2026-10-04", "protocol_version_for_assessment": "1.0", "methodology_notes": [ "Protocol v1.0 was frozen on 2026-10-03 for prospective forecasts beginning 2026-10-04. It is not retroactively applied to the 2026-09-27 forecast." ], "revision_attribution_status": "Prospective Protocol v1 signed contribution audit.", "hanke_hyperinflation": { "analysis_date": "2026-10-04", "latest_recoverable_annual_inflation_pct": 79.1, "source_publication_time_status": "unknown", "assessment": "Severe inflation, but not evidence that the Hanke-Cagan hyperinflation threshold of 50% per month is currently met.", "hyperinflation_probability": { "m3": 10, "m6": 18, "m12": 30 }, "status": "diagnostic, unscored" }, "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "publication_time": "2026-10-04T14:00:00-04:00", "protocol_version": "1.0", "revision_attribution": [ { "event_id": "regional_escalation_90d", "prior_p": 36, "new_p": 56, "contributions": [ { "label": "Yemen escalation", "pp": 15 }, { "label": "Diplomacy/transit", "pp": -5 } ], "residual_pp": 10 }, { "event_id": "regime_end_12m", "prior_p": 12, "new_p": 14, "contributions": [ { "label": "Economic stress", "pp": 3 }, { "label": "No elite/coercive fracture", "pp": -1 } ], "residual_pp": 0 }, { "event_id": "currency_crisis_12m", "prior_p": 68, "new_p": 78, "contributions": [ { "label": "Rial low/intervention", "pp": 8 } ], "residual_pp": 2 }, { "event_id": "external_payments_crisis_12m", "prior_p": 72, "new_p": 80, "contributions": [ { "label": "Medicine/payment stress", "pp": 6 }, { "label": "Improved transit", "pp": -2 } ], "residual_pp": 4 } ] } ], "ledger_fields": [ "forecast_date", "event_definition", "horizon", "probability", "uncertainty_range", "confidence", "revision_type", "sources", "resolution_date", "outcome" ], "uncertainty_rule": { "name": "Reasonable-analyst interval", "definition": "The displayed judgmental uncertainty range is the interval within which the assessor judges that roughly 80% of independent, well-informed analysts using the same public information, event definition and horizon would place their point probability. It measures model/analyst disagreement, not sampling error, a Bayesian credible interval, or the probability that the true probability lies in the interval.", "elicitation": "Set the point forecast first. Then estimate the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution of reasonable analysts' point forecasts without changing the point forecast to center the range." }, "prospective_scoring_rule": "A forecast is eligible for scoring only if scored=true and its created_date is on or before its forecast publication date. Retrospective decompositions are preserved for methodological transparency but excluded from Brier scores and calibration.", "protocol": { "version": "1.0", "frozen_on": "2026-10-03", "effective_for_forecasts_on_or_after": "2026-10-04", "change_policy": "Protocol v1 is frozen for prospective use. Substantive changes require a new numbered protocol version, an effective date, a change log, and no retroactive application to already-issued forecasts.", "timestamp_policy": "Evidence collection closes before forecast elicitation. Each update records evidence_cutoff as the actual last evidence timestamp used and publication_time as the actual commit/publication timestamp. Material information first available after evidence_cutoff is excluded from that forecast and may enter only the next forecast or an explicitly labeled interim update.", "core_scored_set": [ { "id": "regional_escalation_90d", "event": "Sustained major regional escalation", "horizon_days": 90, "resolution": "Sustained major interstate strikes lasting at least 72 hours, or a material expansion of major combat to an additional sovereign state or operational theater. Isolated interceptions, one-off strikes, proxy attacks, and rhetoric alone are excluded unless they initiate the qualifying sustained episode." }, { "id": "regime_end_12m", "event": "Regime-ending transition", "horizon_days": 365, "resolution": "Replacement of the Islamic Republic's governing constitutional-institutional order, or loss of its effective national governing authority. Leadership succession, cabinet changes, and factional turnover within the same governing order are excluded." }, { "id": "currency_crisis_12m", "event": "Currency crisis", "horizon_days": 365, "resolution": "Depreciation of the parallel-market rial by at least 25% against the U.S. dollar over any rolling 30-calendar-day window, using the designated consistent parallel-rate series and excluding a single-day quote anomaly that reverses within 48 hours.", "threshold_note": "The 25%/30-day threshold is a monitoring convention chosen ex ante for Protocol v1 for scoreability and sensitivity to acute depreciation; it is not claimed to be a universal economic definition. Sensitivity at 20% and 30% will be reported when resolving." }, { "id": "external_payments_crisis_12m", "event": "External-payments crisis", "horizon_days": 365, "resolution": "Corroborated settlement disruption lasting at least 14 days in at least two essential-import categories—food or grain, medicine or medical inputs, or critical energy or industrial inputs—combined with broad emergency foreign-exchange, import, or payment restrictions or a material shift by suppliers to prepayment or cash because established settlement channels are failing. Evidence must come from at least two independent source streams." } ], "noncore_policy": "Other probabilities may be published as diagnostic estimates but are not part of the permanent core scored set unless added prospectively in a later protocol version.", "uncertainty_rule": { "name": "Reasonable-analyst interval", "definition": "The displayed judgmental uncertainty range is the interval within which the assessor judges that roughly 80% of independent, well-informed analysts using the same public information, event definition and horizon would place their point probability. It measures model/analyst disagreement, not sampling error, a Bayesian credible interval, or the probability that the true probability lies in the interval.", "elicitation": "Set the point forecast first. Then estimate the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution of reasonable analysts' point forecasts without changing the point forecast to center the range." }, "evidence_reliability": { "dimensions": [ "source credibility", "directness", "independent corroboration", "temporal relevance" ], "High": "Primary/direct evidence or multiple independent highly credible sources; direct and current; no material contradiction.", "Medium-high": "Credible and substantially direct evidence with at least one corroborating stream, or exceptionally strong single-source evidence.", "Medium": "Credible but indirect, incompletely corroborated, or subject to meaningful measurement/reporting uncertainty.", "Low": "Single-source, materially indirect, stale, contested, or weakly observable evidence. Low evidence cannot by itself trigger Critical." }, "warning_transition_rules": { "Monetary / FX": { "green": "Stable parallel rate/spread and functioning intervention/payment access on affirmative evidence.", "yellow": "Persistent depreciation/spread widening or rising dollarization without intervention failure.", "orange": "Multiple signals: accelerating depreciation plus ineffective intervention/payment strain or shortening quote validity.", "red": "Self-reinforcing substitution/repricing dynamics or qualifying currency crisis already operating." }, "Fiscal": { "green": "Routine financing clears without extraordinary coercion/monetization.", "yellow": "Rising yields, arrears pressure or weaker auctions.", "orange": "Repeated weak/failed financing plus forced lending, fund drawdown or material monetization.", "red": "Routine financing failure with accelerating monetization/arrears threatening priority obligations." }, "Banking / payments": { "green": "Affirmative evidence normal settlement/liquidity.", "yellow": "Localized delays, higher prepayment or channel friction.", "orange": "Multiple sectors/channels show persistent settlement failure or material deposit/dollarization stress.", "red": "Broad payment impairment or bank/liquidity dysfunction disrupting essential commerce." }, "Food / medicine": { "green": "Affirmative normal availability across essentials.", "yellow": "Localized/persistent shortages or affordability stress.", "orange": "Multiple essential categories materially disrupted across regions.", "red": "Generalized essential-goods failure with rationing/queues and logistics/payment feedback." }, "Energy / industrial": { "green": "Normal reserve margins/supply with no emergency curtailment.", "yellow": "Conservation appeals, localized curtailment or seasonal stress.", "orange": "Rationing/load shedding materially disrupts industry, freight or work patterns.", "red": "Priority allocations fail or energy disruption becomes self-reinforcing across essential logistics/production." }, "Social / protest": { "green": "Affirmative low protest activity and normal commerce.", "yellow": "Recurrent localized/sectoral protests or closures.", "orange": "Sustained multi-city coordination, major sectoral convergence or nationwide commercial disruption.", "red": "Nationwide sustained unrest materially impairing governance or coercive control." }, "Coercive apparatus": { "green": "Affirmative evidence timely compensation, attendance and command compliance.", "yellow": "Verified localized pay/benefit or morale problems.", "orange": "Repeated arrears/absenteeism/refusal across units or services.", "red": "Material command noncompliance, unit-level refusal, defections or inability to protect priority state functions." }, "Elite cohesion": { "green": "Affirmative coordinated command/policy behavior.", "yellow": "Public blame, unusual clerical/business criticism or personnel churn.", "orange": "Open institutional conflict affecting policy implementation or command.", "red": "Competing centers of authority or elite fracture impairing national command." }, "External support": { "green": "Affirmative stable external trade/finance/security lifelines.", "yellow": "Support continues but with rising discounts/frictions.", "orange": "Major channels materially impaired or partners visibly reduce exposure.", "red": "External lifelines fail across multiple critical channels with no adequate substitute." } }, "haircut_protocol": { "dependence_rule": "Component contributions are not simply interpreted as independent risks. Protocol v1 applies a 20% overlap deduction to the combined delivery + sanctions/payment + political-tail subtotal above 20 percentage points, rounded to the nearest point, to reduce double counting of a common geopolitical shock.", "anchors": { "Physical delivery/blockade": { "cap": 25, "low": "Routine evasion/managed delivery with limited disruption", "mid": "Persistent disruption/workarounds and meaningful delivery uncertainty", "high": "Severe route denial/blockade or repeated delivery failure" }, "Sanctions/payment channels": { "cap": 15, "low": "Usable channels with modest friction", "mid": "Material channel restrictions/prepayment/discounting", "high": "Broad settlement-channel impairment" }, "Sovereign/counterparty": { "cap": 10, "low": "Reliable performance despite stress", "mid": "Material arrears/renegotiation or counterparty opacity", "high": "Repeated nonperformance or acute sovereign stress" }, "Oil-price/basis": { "cap": 8, "low": "Low basis/price mismatch", "mid": "Material volatility/basis exposure", "high": "Extreme mismatch or hedge difficulty" }, "Illiquidity/enforcement": { "cap": 8, "low": "Transferable/enforceable arrangements", "mid": "Material illiquidity/enforcement limits", "high": "Highly bespoke/illiquid with weak recourse" }, "Political/secondary-sanctions tail": { "cap": 8, "low": "Limited incremental tail exposure", "mid": "Credible secondary-sanctions/political tail", "high": "Acute escalation/secondary-sanctions exposure" } }, "sensitivity": "Alongside the v1 20% overlap convention, report sensitivity using 0%, 20%, and 40% overlap deductions. The 20% case remains the Protocol v1 headline; sensitivity cases are diagnostic and do not change the frozen rule.", "overlap_status": "The 20% overlap factor is an explicit Protocol v1 convention, not an empirically estimated correlation parameter. It is a candidate for empirical revision only in a future protocol version." }, "houthi_protocol": { "headline_resolution": "Yes only if Iranian matériel or Iranian technical/financial support remains sufficient to measurably sustain advanced Houthi missile/UAV or maritime capability. Houthi independent/local capability alone cannot resolve Iranian-support continuity Yes.", "inputs": [ "interdictions", "launch/operational tempo", "identified Iranian-origin components", "local production/assembly evidence", "Iranian advisory/technical evidence", "finance/logistics evidence", "inventory depletion/replenishment indicators" ], "elicitation": "Assess matériel and technical/financial support separately from local capability; headline probability is a judgment conditioned on at least one Iranian-support channel remaining strategically meaningful." }, "calibration_policy": "Report Brier scores for all resolved core forecasts and separately by event family and comparable horizon only when sample size is adequate; never imply meaningful calibration from very small cells.", "evidence_balance_policy": "For each core forecast, preserve material evidence that raises, lowers, or is genuinely ambiguous/neutral. A zero probability revision may be labeled 'offsetting evidence' when meaningful opposing evidence changed but net probability did not.", "resolution_policy": { "authority": "Resolve from the pre-specified event rule using the archived public evidence record. Ambiguous cases require a written resolution note citing the decisive evidence and rule clause.", "indeterminate": "If reliable public evidence is insufficient to determine Yes or No by the resolution review date, code outcome='indeterminate'. Indeterminate forecasts are excluded from Brier/calibration scoring; the exclusion and reason remain public. Never choose a resolution based on which result improves the score.", "review_timing": "Perform resolution review promptly after the forecast deadline; later evidence may establish what happened before the deadline only if it directly documents the pre-deadline state." }, "serial_dependence_caveat": "Weekly forecasts with overlapping horizons are strongly serially dependent. Per-forecast Brier scores may be reported, but counts of overlapping forecasts must not be interpreted as independent sample size; calibration uncertainty and comparative claims must account for clustering/overlap.", "display_clarification": "Warning colors describe the current state of a diagnostic failure pathway. Forecast probabilities describe the chance of a defined future event by a stated deadline. A severe current warning and a lower future-event probability, or vice versa, are not inherently inconsistent.", "evidence_impact_scale": { "minor": "Credible evidence that modestly updates one input but does not alter the central mechanism or threshold state.", "moderate": "Corroborated evidence that materially changes a key driver, threshold state, or one core forecast's assessment.", "major": "High-quality evidence of a structural break, threshold crossing, major military/political/economic event, or failure/restoration of a critical mechanism." }, "revision_attribution_rule": "At forecast time, record approximate signed percentage-point contributions for material new evidence/reassessment sufficient to reconcile the prior point forecast to the new point forecast. These are an audit decomposition of judgment, not causal estimates or a statistical model. If effects offset, label offsetting evidence.", "id_policy": { "forecast_id": "core event id + '_' + forecast date YYYYMMDD; immutable once issued.", "evidence_id": "Persistent event/source identifier. Reuse the same evidence_id when evidence is carried forward; mark evidence_status='new' or 'carried_forward' rather than creating a duplicate observation.", "resolution": "Resolution records must reference forecast_id." }, "uncertainty_display": "Display the reasonable-analyst interval less prominently than the point forecast and evidence confidence until external forecaster dispersion can be compared with it.", "future_research_note": "The v1.1 candidate register is non-operative research backlog only. None of its items changes Protocol v1.0, forecast definitions, warning thresholds, scoring, or the 2026-10-04 workflow unless adopted prospectively in a later numbered protocol.", "deadline_convention": "Protocol v1 horizons use local-calendar time: 90-day forecasts resolve 90 local calendar days after forecast_open at the same local clock time; 12-month forecasts resolve on the same local calendar date and clock time one year later (Feb 29 maps to Feb 28). Offset may change with daylight-saving time. This convention is executable in the validator.", "validation_policy": "Errors block validation: malformed core records, wrong deadlines/timestamp ordering, post-cutoff evidence with known publication time, arithmetic failures, or unauthorized historical mutation. Missing precise source publication time is a validation warning and must remain explicitly recorded as unknown.", "publication_architecture": "Current Pages source is main. Protocol v1 publication procedure validates the proposed record before commit and CI validates again after push. A future candidate-branch/merge gate is preferred for stronger pre-main atomicity; until implemented, a failed CI run must not be represented as validated." }, "protocol_v1_1_candidate_register": [ "Empirically estimate dependence/overlap in the Iran–China oil-credit haircut rather than using the v1 20% convention.", "Replace qualitative haircut Low/Mid/High anchors with more observable quantitative thresholds where reliable data permit.", "Validate reasonable-analyst uncertainty intervals against actual external-forecaster dispersion when a comparable sample becomes available.", "Evaluate whether the 90-day escalation rule needs a prospectively defined high-severity alternative to the 72-hour criterion.", "Evaluate resolution-authority procedures for fragmented or contested national control using experience from resolved forecasts.", "Revision attribution: require an explicit residual 'other/model judgment' term and coarse contribution increments so exact reconciliation is not misread as causal precision.", "Performance aggregation: account for correlation among core outcomes; report event-family results separately and avoid naive equal-weight aggregate scores that overweight a common crisis process.", "Benchmarking: when sample size permits, compare Brier performance with simple benchmarks such as prior-week probability, defensible base rates, and no-change forecasts before claiming skill.", "Overlapping-horizon resolution: one qualifying event should resolve every still-open forecast whose event definition and window include it, using the same decisive evidence rather than treating weekly forecasts as independent events.", "Resolution records: store outcome, resolution_date, resolved_at, decisive_evidence_ids, and resolution_note for every resolved forecast.", "Evidence architecture: consider moving persistent evidence into a global immutable evidence.json with weekly records referencing evidence IDs if carried-forward evidence makes history.json unwieldy.", "China oil-credit terminology: evaluate 'equivalent haircut' terminology because risk may be priced through tenor, collateral, quantity, counterparty selection, or payment timing rather than only an explicit price discount.", "China haircut uncertainty: separate component/parameter uncertainty from dependence-overlap sensitivity; do not imply overlap is the dominant source of uncertainty.", "Houthi quantification: develop diagnostic stock-flow accounting using expenditure/launch rates, replenishment evidence, indigenous-production share, component bottlenecks, and interdiction rates before considering Houthi probabilities for scored status.", "Warning-system validation: measure state duration, transition frequency, lead/lag relationship to core forecasts, and whether persistent warning states retain predictive discrimination.", "Missingness: distinguish ordinary data gaps from endogenous information suppression such as communications shutdowns or deliberate reporting restrictions.", "Source independence: distinguish publisher count from independent underlying information streams and track common-source dependence.", "Track prospective-validation maturity explicitly so polished presentation is not mistaken for demonstrated forecast skill; disclose that Protocol v1 initially has little or no resolved prospective record.", "Protocol discipline: evaluate the ability to run v1 unchanged for a sustained period, preserve disconfirming evidence, and resolve poor-performing forecasts without retrospective rule changes." ] }