Version rule: substantive changes require a new numbered protocol and effective date. No new rule is applied retroactively to an issued forecast.
Core scored forecasts
Resolution policy
Timestamp policy
Evidence collection closes before probability elicitation. Every update records the actual evidence cutoff and publication time. Information first available after the cutoff is excluded from that forecast.
Judgmental uncertainty
Set the point forecast first. Then estimate the 10th and 90th percentiles of the point probabilities that independent, well-informed analysts using the same information, definition and horizon would give. This is a reasonable-analyst interval, not a statistical confidence or credible interval.
Evidence reliability
Warning transition rules
Evidence identity & revision attribution
China oil-credit haircut
Houthi-support protocol
Calibration
Future protocol candidates
Research backlog only — these items do not modify Protocol v1.0.