Current conditions
Observed or inferred state today. These are not forecasts.
Key forecasts
Each probability has a stated event and exact deadline. Colors describe current pathway state; probabilities describe future-event likelihood. They measure different things. Protocol v1 is newly prospective and does not yet have a substantial resolved track record.
30–90 day regional scenarios
12-month political indicators
Early-warning system
Colors represent distance from a defined failure threshold, not whether conditions are simply good or bad. Direction is shown separately. Gray means public evidence is insufficient.
Threshold chains
The site tracks progression through mechanisms that can turn stress into systemic failure.
Key stabilizers & absent warning signs
Absence is shown only where observation coverage is adequate; unknowns are not treated as reassuring.
Original indicators
Iran–China oil-credit haircut
Iran→Houthi support sustainability
Corrections
Forecast ledger
Published estimates remain archived rather than being silently overwritten.
Forecast probabilities
Iran–China oil-credit haircut
Major news & revision drivers
Only developments that materially changed a forecast are shown. Revision type distinguishes new events from newly incorporated evidence, reassessment, and correction.
Evidence ledger
Timestamped observations used in the current assessment. This is distinct from interpretation and forecasts.
Probabilities are analytical judgments, not market prices or official forecasts. Missing public evidence is not treated as evidence of stability. See methodology.